Crude oil and Natural gas outlook

Hello everyone, I am an Indian Trader who trades particularly in MCX Crude Oil and Natural Gas. The traders which have dealt with these commodities know full well that these are the most volatile and troublesome of them all. It may seem at times that these commodities are fully operator driven and do not follow any established trends. Here are some of the rules which I had formed for myself after losing repeatedly, These rules have since helped me to stay in positive territory :- (1) Never put your entire capital in any single trade and do not go on averaging. (2) Do not ignore your stoploss but a little flexibility is required as these commodities tend to swing here and there. But never hesitate to book loss as it may prevent disaster.  (3) Do not revenge trade. If you have encountered loss. Try again the next day. Do not go on switching trades and piling up the losses. (4) Try to trade only in futures if possible. (5) If trading in options , do not go for goose chase  and ne...

  This Natural Gas Price forecast is for short term for period upto 23.08.2024. Before getting into what may be behaviour of Natural Gas for the upcoming week , let us look at the developments of the week ending on 16.08.2024. This week the Natural Gas ended on a negative note on friday with losing on three days of the week and gaining on two days.Natural gas inventory fell by 6B but it failed to provide any strength to natural gas prices. The market was witnessing rise in premium due to Ukrainian advance in the Russian border territory which threatened Russian gas supply to Europe, but the prices died down despite of the looming threat on account of near full gas storage levels at Europe. The trading range of the week was from $2.111 to $2.298 . let us summarise the events of last week that impacted the Natural gas pricing:- 1. Us moved its military assets in the mediterranean to ward off any attack on Israel. 2. US weekly jobless claims fell more than expected. 3. China Consumer ...

 This Crude Oil Price forecast is for short term for period upto 23.08.2024. Before getting into what may be behaviour of crude oil for the upcoming week , let us look at the developments of the week ending on 16.08.2024. This week the crude oil ended on a negative note on friday with losing on three days of the week and gaining on two days.Crude Oil inventory rose by 1.357M which added to the selling pressure.  The market was witnessing rise in premium due to possible escalation from the Iranian side, but the week remained rather a quite one. The trading range of the week was from $75.5 to $80 . let us summarise the events of last week that impacted the Oil pricing:- 1. Us moved its military assets in the mediterranean to ward off any attack on Israel. 2. US weekly jobless claims fell more than expected. 3. China Consumer prices rose faster than expected. 4. Ukraine expanded its military activity in Russian border areas. 5.OPEC in its monthly Oil market report revised down it...

  1.Middle East Tensions 2.Russia Ukraine War 3.OPEC+ production Cuts 4.China Crude Oil Demand 5.US oil productions 6.Sanctions on Russia, Iran and Venezuela 7. Rise of new players outside OPEC 8.Economic slowdown 9.Rise of E mobility and Renewable sources of energy 10. Tightening of environmental regulations in Europe 11.No recent major oil exploration and ageing oil fields in middle east   Crude Oil is one of the most volatile commodities there is. We saw its prices being driven in negative territory during the Covid pandemic and the prices surging to seven year high during the Russian Ukraine conflict. The Prices responding to Middle east tensions in regions surrounding Israel and the same prices getting subdued by worries over China Demand.   Let us try to examine the major factors in recent times contributing to the pricing of Crude Oil:-   1.       Middle East Tensions   During recent past and on the time of writing this article, t...

    1.        Russia Ukraine war 2.       Middle East Tensions 3.       LNG export constraints in the USA 4.       Natural gas storage levels in USA and Europe 5.       Cooling demand/demand for electricity generation in USA 6.       Prices of Crude Oil 7.       Demand in major markets like China and Europe 8.       Rise of new players 9.       Natural factors like Hurricanes/very cool weather causing supply disruptions 10.    Economic slow down   Natural gas is one of the most volatile commodities currently trading in the commodity market, the prices of which are determined by a tug of war between the fundamentals and the ongoing issues.  We have seen natural gas prices getting pumped to over $10 mark in 2022 due to Russia Ukraine war in a ...