Natural gas Price forecast for short term (upto 23.08.2024)

 This Natural Gas Price forecast is for short term for period upto 23.08.2024.

Before getting into what may be behaviour of Natural Gas for the upcoming week , let us look at the developments of the week ending on 16.08.2024. This week the Natural Gas ended on a negative note on friday with losing on three days of the week and gaining on two days.Natural gas inventory fell by 6B but it failed to provide any strength to natural gas prices.

The market was witnessing rise in premium due to Ukrainian advance in the Russian border territory which threatened Russian gas supply to Europe, but the prices died down despite of the looming threat on account of near full gas storage levels at Europe. The trading range of the week was from $2.111 to $2.298 . let us summarise the events of last week that impacted the Natural gas pricing:-

1. Us moved its military assets in the mediterranean to ward off any attack on Israel.

2. US weekly jobless claims fell more than expected.

3. China Consumer prices rose faster than expected.

4. Ukraine expanded its military activity in Russian border areas.

5. OPEC in its monthly Oil market report revised down its oil demand growth forecast by 135000 barrels a day from previous month's report owing to concerns about demand growth at China thus fueling recession worries.

6.EIA Natural gas inventories fell by 6B.

7.US CPI data showed inflation cooling thus boosting hopes for Fed Rate Cut in September.

8. US weather patterns showed moderate to light demand over next 15 days.

Next week everybody will be eyeing for Fed FOMC minutes due on wednesday and US PMI data to be released later on Thursday to get more insight into the possibility of Fed Rate Cut..

But with the Overall scenario at the moment and given that Natural gas has failed to capitalise on inventory draw and the comfortable position of the inventory at USA and the storage levels of Europe, any bounce back should be seen as an opportunity to go short as neither charts nor fundamentals are backing any upward movement. For Indian traders, it is however important to deal only with the futures in natural gas and stay away from the options as the market may be highly volatile but overall the trend is expected to be down.