Crude Oil price forecast for short term(upto 23.08.2024)

 This Crude Oil Price forecast is for short term for period upto 23.08.2024.

Before getting into what may be behaviour of crude oil for the upcoming week , let us look at the developments of the week ending on 16.08.2024. This week the crude oil ended on a negative note on friday with losing on three days of the week and gaining on two days.Crude Oil inventory rose by 1.357M which added to the selling pressure. 

The market was witnessing rise in premium due to possible escalation from the Iranian side, but the week remained rather a quite one. The trading range of the week was from $75.5 to $80 . let us summarise the events of last week that impacted the Oil pricing:-

1. Us moved its military assets in the mediterranean to ward off any attack on Israel.

2. US weekly jobless claims fell more than expected.

3. China Consumer prices rose faster than expected.

4. Ukraine expanded its military activity in Russian border areas.

5.OPEC in its monthly Oil market report revised down its oil demand growth forecast by 135000 barrels a day from previous month's report owing to concerns about demand growth at China.

6.EIA Oil inventories rose by 1.357M.

7.US CPI data showed inflation cooling thus boosting hopes for Fed Rate Cut in September.

8. For July’s overall crude imports, China reported a 3 per cent drop to 42.3 million tonnes, the figure’s lowest level since September 2022.

Next week everybody will be eyeing for Fed FOMC minutes due on wednesday and US PMI data to be released later on Thursday to get more insight into the possibility of Fed Rate Cut..

But with the Overall scenario at the moment and given that Oil has shed nearly $9 in a month's time with last week's closing at around $76.6 and all the technical charts flashing more downward pressure. It is expected that the next week we may get to see oil trading at sub $75 levels based on the technical Charts. Any bounce back should be seen as an opportunity to go short as neither charts nor fundamentals are backing any upward movement. The Fed rate cut might not be enough to challenge the demand concerns and Middle East tensions remain undecided.